IPL 2009

Its that time of the year again! The auctions are done with. The tentative schedule for IPL 2009 has been announced. The producers of TV soaps have started biting their nails and tearing their hair out, one strand at a time, not knowing how not to lose audience for nearly 2 months.

I'm particularly interested in the fortunes of the 'Royal' teams. I'm a Bengalurean, and naturally RCB is my favourite team. I cheered loudly for them last year when they avoided the 'Wooden spoon'. This time I'm sure they would have better luck. 'Rajasthan Royals' would probably be every one's favourite after their own home teams. Led and coached by maverick 'Warney', they showed great spunk last year and their fabulous victory made even management gurus sit up and take a lesson or two on team work and role plays.

I'll go ahead and analyze the prospects of both the teams. I'm no Gavaskar or Chappell, but I would like to think of myself as somewhat knowledgeable in the area and have made a right guess or two in the past. 

First the Challengers. Their problems last year started right at the top. Having made some horrible player selections, they were unable to bond and click together as a team. The couple of matches that they won, they huffed and puffed and barely managed to scrape through. The openers play a crucial role in T20 and RCB didn't have one, let alone two. They tried Jaffer, Chipli, Dravid, Chanderpaul, Kohli and none of them clicked. The arrival of Uthappa solves half of the problem, though it weakens the bowling due to the loss of Zaheer khan. The other half is solved by the acquisition of Jesse Ryder. In addition to being a explosive batsman, Ryder is a dibbly-dobbler who can slip in a quiet over or two. Dravid would probably come in at 3 and look to play his normal role of holding the innings together. KP at 4 and Kallis at 5 would look to get on with it and 6 would probably have White or Boucher depending on the conditions, then Akhil/Devaraj Patil, Praveen kumar, Joshi, Kumble and Steyn would follow. Ross Taylor would get his chance when KP leaves in May. Kohli, Jaffer, Vinay kumar and the others would get their chances somewhere. The cap of 4 foreign players in the 11 places an additional responsibility on the captains to try and get the combination right.

The overall balance of the team has greatly improved by the changes this year and a change in captaincy would definitely add an edge. Dravid has been fighting his demons for more than a year now and would do well to step aside and let KP/Uthappa take over for this edition. Dravid let his personal failures affect his captaincy and took the team down with him last season. Dravid, no doubt, is one of the greatest players to play the game and has a good cricketing brain, but at the moment he should relax a little, let his hair down and try to have some fun.

There are problems areas this year as well. The bowling, though there are some big names on paper, lacked bite last year. Even Kumble went for quite a few. RCB would do well to unearth some fresh local talent in this area. Second, the departure of KP in May would weaken the batting a great deal. So, RCB should look to win as many matches as possible in the first round of matches. 

In summary, the team looks more solid than last year and would definitely win more matches. But a semi-final spot still looks out of reach, I would bet on them to end-up fifth/sixth in the rankings.

[Update (6/3/09) - Apparently I missed out mention of Nathan Bracken who happens to be a Royal Challenger. Not sure what his situation is. He didn't play a single game last year if I remember correctly, and might not be available this time either (pure speculation), if he's in the squad for Australia's one day series against SA. It would be very interesting to watch who he would replace if at all he plays. Probably Boucher/White. 

I also forgot to mention Pankaj Singh, the Rajasthan medium pacer, who might get a game or two as well.

Meanwhile, RCB local talent scouts have called up Tinu Yohanan for trials. Tinu made a comeback to the Kerala squad this season after a long absence. Will be interesting to follow his fortunes. 

And, KP says he'll watch the security situation and will come only if he feels its safe. What a shame it would be if he decides not to tour.]

Now, the Royals. The team has not changed a great deal since last year. Kamran Akmal & Sohail Tanvir are not part of the team anymore. Kamran didn't play most of the games last year, so they won't miss him much, but Tanvir was their strike bowler, his loss would hurt a bit. They have got Shaun Tait as his replacement, but then, Tait is no Tanvir. Shane Watson is just returning from an injury. He is unlikely to bowl if at all he participates in this year's edition (Australia has a ODI series against Pakistan in May). Watson was the star performer for the Royals last year along with Pathan in the batting department.  If Tyron Henderson is as good as his price-tag suggests, the all-rounder would probably  be a worthy replacement for Watson. 

RR seemed to run out of steam towards the later stages of the season, and laboured to get home in a few of the matches. In fact, the finals was almost lost, but for Pathan's cool, composed knock. Since the crux of the team is unchanged, the other teams would already have plans for dealing with them. As such, it would not be smooth sailing for RR this season. But who knows what that magician is conjuring up right now. If he comes up with a new bag of tricks, then it is game on. I still would expect RR to just about squeeze in to the semis, but not go on to win the tournament.

So, who would I back to win this year's edition? Delhi Daredevils! They have an explosive batting line-up consisting of Sehwag, Gambhir, David Warner, DeVilliers, Collingwood, Dilshan, Maharoof and have McGrath, Nehra, Vettori and Amit Mishra to back them up in the bowling. In addition they have guys like Owais Shah, Dinesh Karthick & Rajat Bhatia alongwith YoMahesh & Pradeep Sangwan. The last two did exceptionally well in the last edition. DD have probably the most balanced team this year. So, my money is firmly on them to be IPL champions 2009. 

Who would head to Champions League with them? Hmm, that's a tough one. May be in the next post after analyzing the remaining teams. Till then, have fun and cheer for India in the ODIs. 3-2 to India? Anyone?