BJP survey gives it slight edge in race against Cong

27 Mar 2009, 0339 hrs IST, TNN

NEW DELHI: A shrinking UPA offers opportunities to BJP, but the saffron party has considerable ground to cover before it can seize a clear lead in the 2009 elections lending an even sharper edge to electoral battles in states where it directly squares off against the Congress. Click here to read more...

Top 5 BJP news (31-3-2009)

1. Cong has suffered paralytic stroke: Advani
   
2. Right to food: BJP promises Re 1-a-kg rice
   
3. BJP launches 2 TV ad campaigns for elections
   
4. Pak attack: BJP asks Government to exercise maximum caution
   
5. If Varun cannot, Maneka will: BJP
   

Main-stream media reporting: Incompetency or malicious intent?

I was at the "Friends of BJP" event in Bengaluru on Saturday, 21st March. The event was a big success with the NMKRV auditorium fully occupied. It was heartening to see a large number of people turn up on their own without any incentives being offered and people being ferried. And, oh yes, there was a fair percentage of the upper middle class (who supposedly don't turn up to vote) that had arrived in their fancy Sonatas & Corollas.

The event went on quite well, with an invocation song by Pallavi Arun (Aye mere waton ke logo, soulfully rendered without any accompanying music) and a slick powerpoint presentation about why India needs strong leadership at the moment, before Arun Jaitley's speech provided a fitting finale to the Bengaluru event.

Today, the DH ran a report on the event and as I read it I was despaired. Here's why:

At the event, as I saw and heard it, Mr. Jaitley likened the PM to a "Night watchman" (as in cricket, in case you didn't know), who keeps the crease occupied until the conditions become better for the regular batsman to come in. And, precisely for those who didn't understand he quoted an incident from the last parliament session. It seems, he had made the same statement in Parliament, and expected a furuore to be caused by the Treasury benches. But to his suprise there was no response at all. It was only when, Veerappa Moily came to him the next day and asked him to apologise for calling the PM a "watchman" that he realised that the ruling party members hadn't really got the point.

In spite of the explanation, what does DH say? 

"Speaking at the NMKRV College at the launch of 'Friends of BJP' campaign in Bangalore, Jaitley attacked Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, saying he was like a watchman who had been sent to bat in an important cricket match." 

Simply pathetic.

Then it quotes Mr. Jaitley. "The Pakistan government denies having terrorists in its land, and the Indian government denies there is no economic crisis in the country". Now, what Mr. Jaitley indeed said was, "The Pakistan government denies terrorists crossing over to India from its borders...". Pakistan has never in the recent past denied having terrorists in its land. On the contrary, it has been claiming that it has been a "victim of terrorism" itself. While this is known to every Aam Aadmi,  does DH want its readers to believe that Mr. Jaitley doesn't know it?

In the last column it quotes Mr. Jaitley as saying, "the government never woke up even after 67 cities in India were blasted during its rule", in fact when he actually said "67 blasts in just the last year". Does DH want its readers to believe that Mr. Jaitley is making baseless allegations?

Lets say I'm am an undecided voter. If I were to read this news article as it is, without having attended the event, what would my thoughts about Mr. Jaitley and in turn his party be?

And one of the television channels (no point in naming it, they are all just the same), had bold headlines that read, "Jaitley admits differences exist, seniors should resolve it". When they showed the actual clipping later on, Mr. Jaitley had only said that there were no personal differences between him and Rajnath singh. There was nothing that even remotely seemed to suggest he was admitting anything. So, where did the channel get this bright idea, and what does it want its viewer, the undecided voter, to believe?

Is this just plain incompetence or subversion or truth with malicious intent? 

Update: As of last week, I have gone back to Indian Express. We used to subscribe to IE long before the TOI came in with a big splash. Since then, have explored The Hindu & Deccan Herald.

How I wish there's some news channel as well that offers unbiased news!!!

2009 Lok Sabha Elections - Predictions (Best case, Worst case & What-if scenarios for NDA)

		Arun    Nehru	DNA	TOI	MAX(All)	MIN(All)	Based on GVL's sweep prediction	If UP, MH & BR swing    towards  NDA
	Total Seats	NDA		NDA	NDA	NDA	NDA	NDA
Andhra Pradesh	42	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
Assam	14	7	9	6	9	6	9	9
Bihar	40	26	22	24	26	22	26	30
Chhattisgarh	11	7	7	8	8	7	9	9
Delhi	7	1	1	2	2	1	3	3
Gujarat	26	20	19	20	20	19	22	22
Goa	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Haryana	10	4	5	6	6	4	6	6
Himachal Pradesh	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
J&K	6	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Jharkhand	14	8	4	9	9	4	9	9
Karnataka	28	19	12	18	19	12	21	21
Kerala	20	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
Rajasthan	25	11	10	12	12	10	12	12
Madhya Pradesh	29	21	23	19	23	19	22	22
Maharashtra	48	25	28	24	28	24	28	35
North East	9	0	2	3	3	0	3	3
Orissa	21	3	2	3	3	2	3	3
Punjab	13	7	6	6	7	6	6	6
Tamil Nadu	39	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
Tripura	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Uttar Pradesh	80	11	10	11	11	10	11	20
Uttarakhand	5	3	4	4	4	3	4	4
Union Territory	6	0	1	1	1	0	1	1
West Bengal	42	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
Total	543	178	170	181	196	154	206	226

Since everyone is jumping on to the 'predictive analysis' bandwagon, I too thought I'll hitch on to it. I'm by no means a psephologist or anything remotely close to that, but as a political enthusiast tried to read between the lines on other analyses, and came out with a 'what if' scenario of my own.

The first 3  columns are obvious. Data from outlook blogs & offstumped. 

The next 2 columns just take the best and worst figures from the 3 predictions and give a sum total in each case.

GVLN's prediction can be read at the pioneer web-site. Based on his prediction I assumed NDA would sweep 75%(Karnataka, MP & Chhattisgarh)-85(Gujarat)% of seats in the pro-NDA states. I asumed 50% for Rajasthan & Delhi. For rest of the states, I just took the best figures from the first 3 columns except Punjab, where I considered the worst case.

For the last column, went ahead a little and assumed that there would be a pro-NDA wave in Bihar (no basis really) & Maharashtra (since NaMo is supposed to be drawing huge crowds), and UP (just hoping) would tilt a little more towards the NDA. Also, for AP & WB, added a couple of seats in each case based on comments in various blogs and sites. In such a case, the NDA could look forward to forming the next government with the help of AIADMK, TDP, BJD & Trinamool.

The last 2 columns are really without any basis and you would trust them at your own risk.

IPL 2009 - Part 2

Even as I wrote part 1, the IPL was in danger of getting suspended this year. Now that the Home minister and the IPL chairman and commissioner have assured us that the "opium of the masses" (as someone wrote on their blog. Sincere apologies to the original author, can't recollect the source), will go on, albeit with some nips & tucks to the original schedule.
So, let us get back to where we left off and analyze the prospects of the other teams. I did write last time that my money would firmly be on Delhi Daredevils to win the second edition. Apparently, I realise that I may have spoken in haste. Though, I still continue to believe that they are the front-runners, the picture might not be all that rosy.
For starters, they have too many foriegn players and they can fit in only 4. Such a pity! If they opt to play both 'Pigeon' & Dan, they would have to juggle AB, Collingwood, Warner, Dilshan and Maharoof and be left with some batting spots to be filled by local players like Mithun Manhas & Manoj Tewary, both of whom haven't set the stage afire yet. The other teams would look to get Sehwag and Gambhir early and put some pressure on the middle-order. Last year Shikar Dhawan played the rescue act in such situations, this year DD will miss him and unless they find someone who could play that role they would be in some trouble.
Lets look at Mumbai Indians next. MI made some smart moves this season. They got Zaheer for Uthappa, and brought in Shikhar Dhawan to shore up the batting. They let go of Nehra in the bargain. They have that extra edge in bowling now, which was weakened by the withdrawal of Pollock, through Zaheer & Mills, adding to their bowling machinery led by their last year's find Dhaval Kulkarni. The return of Harbhajan should be a big boost provided he manages to stay out of trouble or injuries. The consistency in batting that they lacked so much last year would be made up by Dhawan's presence and the acquisition of JP Duminy, the smartest move of them all.
Jayasuriya blossomed as the event progressed last year, and if Tendulkar comes good too in this edition and manages to last the entire edition, then MI supporters are in for a gala time. Bravo's presence lends depth. Rahane, Abhishek Nayar & Saurabh Tiwary form the support cast.
Strength: Large presence of good Indian talent
Weakness: Lower middle-order, unpredictability of a few key players

We'll look at the remaining teams in the next post.

Those were the days!

I recently happened to book a movie ticket online which reminded me of the first time I booked a ticket online. Having received the confirmation on my mobile, I had approached the counter to collect my tickets whereupon they guided me to a machine from where I could collect the tickets.

Me being naive requested for assistance and one of the impeccably dressed assistants stepped out from the counter and showed us how it should be done. In the end, it all seemed ludicrously simple. Booking movie tickets had become so simple. Log onto the web-site, select your show, class, seats etc., pay through credit-card, swipe the card at the cinema, collect your tickets and you are done. Easy! 

Now, you might be wondering why I'm going ga-ga over something as simple as this. Well, the thought of just relaxing on your favourite couch at home and punching a few keys to book your tickets brings back some old memories of the struggles we had encountered in our quest for the movie tickets.

The one movie that springs to my mind instantly is the Superstar starrer Baba. It was the movie to watch in those days and much-awaited flick released on a Thursday, which happened to be Independence day. So, we lined up outside Urvashi hoping that somehow through some divine intervention we would lay our hands on the tickets that would provide salvation to us. But alas, that was not to be and we were left staring at the "House full" board and the movie posters with a host of other guys who shared our fate.

Then someone hit a brilliant idea to go to one of the other theatres Naga which is half way across the town, and we all hit the road again with rekindled hopes. Only god knows what made us believe that we would get tickets at Naga when we didn't at Urvashi. Surprise, Surprise!!! Tickets are available, but only in Black with each ticket costing around Rs.400/- or so (don't remember the actual figure). We returned home disappointed, but not defeated. We vowed to resume the battle soon and sure we did!

The next day, we were back in the Urvashi queue at the break of dawn much to the ridicule of a few passers-by. This time the queue was not very long and we were almost certain to lay our hands on the damn tickets that would clear our path to Nirvana. But then, as they say on National Geographic, Disaster struck!

The Tamilian movie-goers at Urvashi have this peculiar habit of breaking queues in a unique manner (perhaps they should patent it). They rush forward as a group at the same instant, as if predetermined, and then spread out and join the queue at different locations much ahead of where they were! The lone constable who was posted there to prevent this from happening was left standing clueless. He did make an effort with the help of the other victims (of the queue-breaking conspiracy), yours' truly included.

There was this particular guy who had quietly slid between us and claimed that, he had been standing all the time! So, as quiet as him,  I pointed him out to the constable, who charged at him with his Lathi raised and was about to strike him, when the guy coolly slipped out like an eel, and I who was latching on my Brother in front so as not to be pushed out of the queue got hit on my arms!! My thick pullover saved me. The constable sheepishly smiled and moved away.

Anyway, as a result of this melee, we were pushed back by at least 30 places, and it looked touch-and-go. Luckily there no more break-ins, at least, no more that affected us and we just about managed to squeeze in!! Yoohooooo!!

The movie was lousy and to top it there was a guy sitting in the back-row just behind us, who was hell-bent on expelling the secretions of his mucous membrane every quarter of an hour.
Thankfully, he didn't fancy us much and we were spared from being the target of his misdirected missiles.Wish the Superstar had made good our losses too along with those of the Distributors. Another instance, I can recollect was even earlier, a good 20 years back, when Oru Kaidiyin Diary
was released. Same theater, different group. That time, the whole family, around 12 of us, had descendedon Urvashi to watch Kamal Hassan's astonishing performance in a double-role. We joined the serpentinequeue and in half-an-hour were at the counter. Someone from our group put in their hand and asked for12 tickets, but got only 2 instead. Those were the last 2 tickets available. We returned those andspent some time at Lalbagh instead where the elders gossipped and we kids ran around!!!. Yes, those were the days!! More recently, when Lagaan was released, it was the talk of the town. People you knew were
going back to watch the movie again and again, and if you hadn't watched it, you would get that lookfrom everyone, "What, which planet do you come from?!!" It had already run for over a 100 days, andwe estimated that we could get that we could get through without facing a hell a lot of trouble. Wiser from our previous experiences, we didn't want to take chances, and we formed strategies around getting tickets. We collected information from those who had already watched it, as to whattime they went to the theater, how long did they have to wait for it etc. After Saturday morning's cricket, we directly headed to, where else, Urvashi, again. But the crazy crowds beat us again and all the shows were "House full" for both Saturday and Sunday!!
Never the ones to give up, we repeated the Baba strategy of turning up at day-break the next week
and indeed watched the movie. But unlike, Baba the movie rocked and it felt like watching a cricket match at a movie theater. Rocking atmosphere! Well, I could go on and recount a couple of other experiences, but I think got the point across.
So, before you begin to curse me, I'll close this post here. Thanks for reading. Have a good day!