Tuesday, March 17, 2009

2009 Lok Sabha Elections - Predictions (Best case, Worst case & What-if scenarios for NDA)




Arun    Nehru

 DNA

  TOI

MAX(All)

MIN(All)

Based on GVL's sweep prediction

If UP, MH & BR swing    towards  NDA


Total Seats

NDA


    NDA

NDA

NDA

NDA

NDA

Andhra Pradesh

42

0

0

0

0

0

2

2

Assam

14

7

9

6

9

6

9

9

Bihar

40

26

22

24

26

22

26

30

Chhattisgarh

11

7

7

8

8

7

9

9

Delhi

7

1

1

2

2

1

3

3

Gujarat

26

20

19

20

20

19

22

22

Goa

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Haryana

10

4

5

6

6

4

6

6

Himachal Pradesh

4

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

J&K

6

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

Jharkhand

14

8

4

9

9

4

9

9

Karnataka

28

19

12

18

19

12

21

21

Kerala

20

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

Rajasthan

25

11

10

12

12

10

12

12

Madhya Pradesh

29

21

23

19

23

19

22

22

Maharashtra

48

25

28

24

28

24

28

35

North East

9

0

2

3

3

0

3

3

Orissa

21

3

2

3

3

2

3

3

Punjab

13

7

6

6

7

6

6

6

Tamil Nadu

39

0

0

0

0

0

1

1

Tripura

2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Uttar Pradesh

80

11

10

11

11

10

11

20

Uttarakhand

5

3

4

4

4

3

4

4

Union Territory

6

0

1

1

1

0

1

1

West Bengal

42

0

0

0

0

0

2

2










Total

543

178

170

181

196

154

206

226

Since everyone is jumping on to the 'predictive analysis' bandwagon, I too thought I'll hitch on to it. I'm by no means a psephologist or anything remotely close to that, but as a political enthusiast tried to read between the lines on other analyses, and came out with a 'what if' scenario of my own.

The first 3  columns are obvious. Data from outlook blogs offstumped

The next 2 columns just take the best and worst figures from the 3 predictions and give a sum total in each case.

GVLN's prediction can be read at the pioneer web-site. Based on his prediction I assumed NDA would sweep 75%(Karnataka, MP & Chhattisgarh)-85(Gujarat)% of seats in the pro-NDA states. I asumed 50% for Rajasthan & Delhi. For rest of the states, I just took the best figures from the first 3 columns except Punjab, where I considered the worst case.

For the last column, went ahead a little and assumed that there would be a pro-NDA wave in Bihar (no basis really) & Maharashtra (since NaMo is supposed to be drawing huge crowds), and UP (just hoping) would tilt a little more towards the NDA. Also, for AP & WB, added a couple of seats in each case based on comments in various blogs and sites. In such a case, the NDA could look forward to forming the next government with the help of AIADMK, TDP, BJD & Trinamool.

The last 2 columns are really without any basis and you would trust them at your own risk.


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