2009 Lok Sabha Elections - Predictions (Best case, Worst case & What-if scenarios for NDA)

		Arun    Nehru	DNA	TOI	MAX(All)	MIN(All)	Based on GVL's sweep prediction	If UP, MH & BR swing    towards  NDA
	Total Seats	NDA		NDA	NDA	NDA	NDA	NDA
Andhra Pradesh	42	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
Assam	14	7	9	6	9	6	9	9
Bihar	40	26	22	24	26	22	26	30
Chhattisgarh	11	7	7	8	8	7	9	9
Delhi	7	1	1	2	2	1	3	3
Gujarat	26	20	19	20	20	19	22	22
Goa	2	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Haryana	10	4	5	6	6	4	6	6
Himachal Pradesh	4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
J&K	6	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Jharkhand	14	8	4	9	9	4	9	9
Karnataka	28	19	12	18	19	12	21	21
Kerala	20	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
Rajasthan	25	11	10	12	12	10	12	12
Madhya Pradesh	29	21	23	19	23	19	22	22
Maharashtra	48	25	28	24	28	24	28	35
North East	9	0	2	3	3	0	3	3
Orissa	21	3	2	3	3	2	3	3
Punjab	13	7	6	6	7	6	6	6
Tamil Nadu	39	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
Tripura	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Uttar Pradesh	80	11	10	11	11	10	11	20
Uttarakhand	5	3	4	4	4	3	4	4
Union Territory	6	0	1	1	1	0	1	1
West Bengal	42	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
Total	543	178	170	181	196	154	206	226

Since everyone is jumping on to the 'predictive analysis' bandwagon, I too thought I'll hitch on to it. I'm by no means a psephologist or anything remotely close to that, but as a political enthusiast tried to read between the lines on other analyses, and came out with a 'what if' scenario of my own.

The first 3  columns are obvious. Data from outlook blogs & offstumped. 

The next 2 columns just take the best and worst figures from the 3 predictions and give a sum total in each case.

GVLN's prediction can be read at the pioneer web-site. Based on his prediction I assumed NDA would sweep 75%(Karnataka, MP & Chhattisgarh)-85(Gujarat)% of seats in the pro-NDA states. I asumed 50% for Rajasthan & Delhi. For rest of the states, I just took the best figures from the first 3 columns except Punjab, where I considered the worst case.

For the last column, went ahead a little and assumed that there would be a pro-NDA wave in Bihar (no basis really) & Maharashtra (since NaMo is supposed to be drawing huge crowds), and UP (just hoping) would tilt a little more towards the NDA. Also, for AP & WB, added a couple of seats in each case based on comments in various blogs and sites. In such a case, the NDA could look forward to forming the next government with the help of AIADMK, TDP, BJD & Trinamool.

The last 2 columns are really without any basis and you would trust them at your own risk.

IPL 2009 - Part 2

Even as I wrote part 1, the IPL was in danger of getting suspended this year. Now that the Home minister and the IPL chairman and commissioner have assured us that the "opium of the masses" (as someone wrote on their blog. Sincere apologies to the original author, can't recollect the source), will go on, albeit with some nips & tucks to the original schedule.
So, let us get back to where we left off and analyze the prospects of the other teams. I did write last time that my money would firmly be on Delhi Daredevils to win the second edition. Apparently, I realise that I may have spoken in haste. Though, I still continue to believe that they are the front-runners, the picture might not be all that rosy.
For starters, they have too many foriegn players and they can fit in only 4. Such a pity! If they opt to play both 'Pigeon' & Dan, they would have to juggle AB, Collingwood, Warner, Dilshan and Maharoof and be left with some batting spots to be filled by local players like Mithun Manhas & Manoj Tewary, both of whom haven't set the stage afire yet. The other teams would look to get Sehwag and Gambhir early and put some pressure on the middle-order. Last year Shikar Dhawan played the rescue act in such situations, this year DD will miss him and unless they find someone who could play that role they would be in some trouble.
Lets look at Mumbai Indians next. MI made some smart moves this season. They got Zaheer for Uthappa, and brought in Shikhar Dhawan to shore up the batting. They let go of Nehra in the bargain. They have that extra edge in bowling now, which was weakened by the withdrawal of Pollock, through Zaheer & Mills, adding to their bowling machinery led by their last year's find Dhaval Kulkarni. The return of Harbhajan should be a big boost provided he manages to stay out of trouble or injuries. The consistency in batting that they lacked so much last year would be made up by Dhawan's presence and the acquisition of JP Duminy, the smartest move of them all.
Jayasuriya blossomed as the event progressed last year, and if Tendulkar comes good too in this edition and manages to last the entire edition, then MI supporters are in for a gala time. Bravo's presence lends depth. Rahane, Abhishek Nayar & Saurabh Tiwary form the support cast.
Strength: Large presence of good Indian talent
Weakness: Lower middle-order, unpredictability of a few key players

We'll look at the remaining teams in the next post.